The Coming One: Revitalizing the Brand of a Variety Show Custom Case Solution & Analysis

1. Evidence Brief

Financial Metrics

Viewership Volume: Season 1 of The Coming One recorded over 4 billion views on Tencent Video.
Market Context: The music variety show market in China reached a saturation point by 2019, with dozens of competing programs across iQIYI, Youku, and Tencent.
Monetization Structure: Revenue is primarily derived from title sponsorships, in-show product placement, and post-show artist management via Wajijiwa Entertainment.

Operational Facts

Production Cycle: The program operates on an annual cycle with a 3-month intensive broadcast window.
Talent Pipeline: Season 1 focused on male soloists. Season 2 maintained the male soloist format. Season 3 pivoted to female contestants to tap into different demographic segments.
Platform Integration: The show utilizes the Tencent ecosystem, including WeChat for voting and QQ Music for track distribution.
Mentor Structure: The show employs a 3-track system (Beauty, Magic, and Power) led by established industry celebrities to categorize talent.

Stakeholder Positions

Ma Xiduo (Producer): Focused on maintaining the IP longevity and differentiating the brand from generic idol-selection shows.
Tencent Video: Requires high-traffic content to drive subscription growth and advertisement premiums.
Wajijiwa Entertainment: Responsible for the commercial viability of contestants after the show concludes.
The Audience: Demonstrating fatigue with the traditional idol-trainee model and demanding higher levels of musical authenticity.

Information Gaps

Retention Data: The case lacks specific data on user retention rates between Season 2 and Season 3.
Cost Breakdown: Precise production costs per season and the percentage of budget allocated to celebrity mentors versus talent development are not disclosed.
Artist ROI: Long-term profitability metrics for artists signed after Season 1, excluding the breakout success of Mao Buyi, are absent.

2. Strategic Analysis

Core Strategic Question

How can Tencent Video revitalize The Coming One brand to survive an overcrowded variety show market while transitioning from a temporary traffic-driver to a sustainable music-ecosystem IP?

Structural Analysis

Applying the Jobs-to-be-Done (JTBD) framework reveals that the audience is no longer hiring variety shows just for passive entertainment. They are hiring these programs to participate in the creation of a cultural icon. The traditional idol-trainee model is failing because it feels manufactured, not authentic.

The Value Chain analysis indicates that the primary bottleneck is the Talent Scouting phase. As competitors like iQIYI exhaust the trainee pool, the quality of contestants declines, leading to brand dilution. The current 3-track system (Beauty, Magic, Power) is becoming a constraint rather than a differentiator because it prioritizes external labels over musical substance.

Strategic Options

Option	Rationale	Trade-offs	Resources
Niche Genre Pivot	Focus on specific musical subcultures (e.g., bands, folk, or electronic) to eliminate direct competition with idol shows.	Smaller initial audience reach compared to mass-market pop.	Specialized mentors and technical sound equipment.
Originality-First Model	Mandate that contestants perform original compositions rather than covers to establish musical credibility.	Higher risk of low-quality performances if the talent pool is weak.	Music production teams to support contestant songwriting.
Meta-Content Strategy	Focus the broadcast on the behind-the-scenes reality of music creation rather than just the stage performance.	Requires significantly more editing and a longer production timeline.	Expanded 24/7 filming crews and narrative editors.

Preliminary Recommendation

The Coming One must adopt the Originality-First Model. The success of Season 1 was anchored in the songwriting of Mao Buyi, not the idol format. By pivoting toward musical creators rather than performers, the brand differentiates itself from the trainee-heavy shows on rival platforms. This move shifts the brand from a talent show to a music incubator.

3. Implementation Roadmap

Critical Path

Month 1-2: Talent Scouting Redesign. Shift scouting from idol agencies to independent music platforms (NetEase Cloud Music) and university music conservatories.
Month 3: Format Re-engineering. Dissolve the 3-track system in favor of a Start-up vs. Restart structure (new talent vs. struggling professionals) to create a compelling narrative of musical resilience.
Month 4-6: Production and Broadcast. Launch the 10-week broadcast cycle with a focus on the songwriting process.
Post-Season: Ecosystem Integration. Immediate release of original EPs on QQ Music to capitalize on broadcast momentum.

Key Constraints

Talent Scarcity: High-quality singer-songwriters are rarer than trainees. The success of the season depends entirely on the scouting phase.
Sponsor Alignment: Title sponsors may be hesitant to back a less-glamorous, composition-focused show compared to a high-gloss idol show.

Risk-Adjusted Implementation Strategy

To mitigate the risk of low-quality original music, the production must embed professional music producers within the contestant teams. This ensures that while the ideas are original, the output meets broadcast standards. If viewership targets are not met by Week 4, the narrative must pivot back to personality-driven reality segments to maintain mass-market engagement.

4. Executive Review and BLUF

BLUF

The Coming One must exit the idol-making race immediately. The market is saturated, and the trainee pool is depleted. The brand equity lies in musical discovery, not visual performance. Success requires a pivot to an original-music incubator model. This strategy sacrifices immediate mass-market appeal for long-term IP sustainability and higher-quality artist assets for Wajijiwa Entertainment. Execute this pivot now or face terminal brand fatigue within two cycles.

Dangerous Assumption

The most dangerous premise is that the audience for music variety shows still values musical talent over parasocial relationships with idols. If the decline in viewership is driven by a fundamental shift toward short-form video consumption (TikTok/Douyin) rather than content quality, no amount of format innovation will save the IP.

Unaddressed Risks

Regulatory Volatility: The Chinese government has increased scrutiny on fan-voting mechanics and idol culture. A strategy heavily reliant on fan engagement faces immediate de-platforming risk. (Probability: High; Consequence: Fatal)
Platform Dependency: Over-reliance on the Tencent ecosystem limits the brand reach to existing platform users, failing to capture audiences on competing video apps. (Probability: Medium; Consequence: Moderate)

Unconsidered Alternative

The team failed to consider a Seasonal Hiatus. Instead of forcing a revitalization in a saturated market, Tencent could bench the IP for 24 months. This would allow the talent pool to replenish and create a nostalgia-driven demand for the brand return, a tactic successfully used by major global reality franchises.