Sudan: Land of the Kandakas Custom Case Solution & Analysis

Evidence Brief

Financial Metrics

External Debt: 56 billion dollars as of late 2020, representing approximately 190 percent of GDP (Exhibit 1).
Inflation: Accelerated to 363 percent in February 2021 (Paragraph 12).
Exchange Rate: Devalued from 55 Sudanese Pounds per US Dollar to 375 Sudanese Pounds per US Dollar in February 2021 (Paragraph 14).
GDP Growth: Negative 8.4 percent in 2020 following a 2.5 percent contraction in 2019 (Exhibit 2).
Arrears: 16 billion dollars owed to international financial institutions, blocking access to new concessional financing (Paragraph 8).

Operational Facts

Labor Force Participation: Female participation rate estimated at 24 percent, significantly lower than the 70 percent male participation rate (Paragraph 22).
Social Safety Net: The Sudan Family Support Program (Thamarat) aimed to provide 5 dollars per person monthly to 80 percent of the population (Paragraph 18).
Legislative Quota: The 2019 Constitutional Declaration mandated a 40 percent quota for women in the yet-to-be-formed Transitional Legislative Council (Paragraph 5).
Geography: High concentration of economic distress in peripheral regions including Darfur, South Kordofan, and Blue Nile (Paragraph 30).

Stakeholder Positions

Abdalla Hamdok (Prime Minister): Focuses on technocratic reform, debt relief via the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries initiative, and international reintegration.
Sovereign Council (Military Wing): Led by General Burhan and General Dagalo; controls significant state-owned enterprises and remains wary of civilian oversight.
Kandakas (Women Revolutionaries): Demand full implementation of the 40 percent representation quota and repeal of discriminatory public order laws.
International Monetary Fund (IMF): Requires exchange rate unification and subsidy removal as conditions for debt relief.

Information Gaps

Granular data on the size and scope of military-controlled commercial entities is absent.
Specific impact assessments of hyperinflation on rural female-headed households are not provided.
Internal timelines for the transition to full civilian elections remain fluid and contradictory.

Strategic Analysis

Core Strategic Question

How can the transitional government institutionalize gender-inclusive economic growth to secure the gains of the revolution while managing extreme macroeconomic instability and military-civilian tension?

The government must reconcile the immediate pain of structural adjustment with the high expectations of a mobilized citizenry.
The role of women (Kandakas) must transition from revolutionary symbols to formal economic and political actors.
Economic survival depends on clearing arrears to unlock international aid, which requires unpopular domestic reforms.

Structural Analysis

Applying a Political Economy lens to the Sudanese transition reveals that the primary barrier is the misalignment between civilian social goals and military economic interests. The military controls an estimated 80 percent of the non-oil economy through various enterprises. Consequently, fiscal reform is not merely a technical exercise but a direct challenge to the power base of the security apparatus. Socially, the Kandakas represent a significant untapped economic resource; increasing female labor participation by 10 percent could theoretically offset a substantial portion of the GDP contraction. However, the legal and social infrastructure remains restrictive.

Strategic Options

Option 1: Aggressive Structural Reform with Gender-Targeted Fiscal Policy. This involves immediate removal of fuel and bread subsidies, unification of the exchange rate, and direct redirection of those funds into the Thamarat program specifically targeting female heads of households.
Trade-off: High risk of short-term urban unrest but faster path to debt relief and economic formalization.

Option 2: Gradualist Stability Approach. Maintain certain subsidies while negotiating a slow handover of military-owned businesses to civilian control.
Trade-off: Lower immediate risk of a coup or riots but risks losing IMF support and prolonging hyperinflation, which disproportionately hurts the poor.

Preliminary Recommendation

The government should pursue Option 1. The window for debt relief via the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries initiative is narrow. Delaying reform will exhaust remaining foreign reserves and lead to a total currency collapse. The political capital of the Kandakas should be utilized to build a national consensus for these reforms in exchange for immediate legislative and judicial protections for women.

Implementation Roadmap

Critical Path

Month 1-2: Complete exchange rate unification to eliminate the black market and stabilize the Sudanese Pound.
Month 3: Launch the national identity card rollout to facilitate the Sudan Family Support Program (Thamarat) payments.
Month 4: Formalize the Transitional Legislative Council with the 40 percent female quota to provide a legal mandate for reform.
Month 6: Reach the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Decision Point to unlock 50 billion dollars in potential debt relief.

Key Constraints

Institutional Friction: The civilian government lacks the administrative capacity to distribute cash transfers to remote areas without military logistics.
Military Resistance: Any attempt to tax or audit military-owned enterprises may trigger a security crisis or a coup.
Inflationary Pressure: Initial subsidy removal will spike prices before the safety net can fully compensate the most vulnerable populations.

Risk-Adjusted Implementation Strategy

To mitigate the risk of social collapse, the government must front-load the Thamarat program in urban centers where the revolution was strongest. The strategy must move away from general subsidies to direct cash transfers. Success depends on the speed of international aid disbursement; if the IMF and World Bank do not provide immediate liquidity following reform, the civilian government will likely fall. A contingency plan must include a negotiated settlement with the military to allow them to retain some commercial interests in exchange for non-interference in the civilian budgetary process for a three-year period.

Executive Review and BLUF

BLUF

Sudans transition is at a breaking point. The government must prioritize international debt relief through the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries initiative by implementing immediate, painful currency and subsidy reforms. These actions will cause short-term hardship but are the only path to solvency. To maintain legitimacy, the government must pivot from viewing women as revolutionary icons to treating them as a primary economic engine. Formalizing female labor participation and ensuring the 40 percent legislative quota are not social goals but stability requirements. Without rapid economic stabilization, the military will likely seize full control, citing civilian incompetence.

Dangerous Assumption

The analysis assumes that international donors will provide sufficient and timely liquidity to offset the social pain of subsidy removal. If donor funds are delayed by even 90 days, the resulting hyperinflation and bread shortages will likely trigger a counter-revolution or military intervention.

Unaddressed Risks

Security Fragmentation: The rivalry between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces could lead to open conflict, regardless of economic performance. Probability: Moderate. Consequence: Total state failure.
Regional Interference: Neighboring states may prioritize their own security interests over Sudans democratic transition, potentially backing military factions to ensure stability. Probability: High. Consequence: Dilution of civilian authority.

Unconsidered Alternative

The team did not consider a state-led industrial policy focused on the agricultural sector. Sudan possesses massive arable land that remains underutilized. Instead of focusing solely on financial services and debt, the government could prioritize a massive push for agricultural exports to generate hard currency outside of the military-controlled sectors.